The forecast will entail an overview of the upcoming season, total seasonal snowfall and first snowfall prediction, and a month by month analysis of what to expect. For a more detailed analysis, please see the Technical Discussion.
There are many factors that influence the weather during the winter season. One of them is the El Nino Southern Oscillation. In simple terms, it is a phenomenon that refers to the warming and cooling of the waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warming is referred to as El Nino and the cooling is referred to as La Nina. Both have significant impact across the United States and can greatly alter the weather patterns and storm tracks. There are three phases to each: weak, moderate, and strong. In terms of how it affect the weather in this region, both strong and moderate events for both tend to favor warmer winters and less snowfall. The weak phase gives us colder and snowier winters, more so for El Nino, than La Nina. Also, El Nino features a more coastal storm track and snow threat, while La Nina features a more westward/inland track, with storms passing over the Appalachian Mountains and west of the I-95 Corridor. This tends to produce ice and snow to rain type events. This winter, we will be in a moderate El Nino for 2/3 of the winter, and a weak phase for the last third.
Expect this winter to be around average temperature wise. There will be slightly more snowfall than last winter, but an average snowfall season overall. I see the first half of the winter being warm and the second half cold, with the transition taking place sometime in January. Dont expect an early snowfall as December will be warm and the first snow will not occur until after the new year. January will be the most difficult month to predict. With high confidence, I see February as being the coldest and snowiest month. As with last winter, I have backed off significantly with the total snowfall threat, and more so the threat for a significant(10"+) snowstorm. The threat is increased over past years, but not enough for me to be excited. I see mainly small/nuisance and moderate snowstorm events for the upcoming season. One to two storms will be in the 1-4 inch range, with another two moderate storms in the 5-10 inch range. Seasons for comparison for the upcoming winter are 2006/2007 and 1965/1966. (See last section of the Technical Discussion)